SpaceX Stock: Why IPO History Prompts A Double-Upgrade (NASDAQ:SPCX) - Seeking Alpha

Stock IdeasLong IdeasCommunication ServicesSpaceX: Why IPO History Prompts A Double UpgradeJul 25, 2026, 10:28 AM ETSpace Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) Stock, SPCX:CA StockMike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT9.5K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(8min)Comments(151)SummarySpaceX is upgraded to a buy after a 51% peak-to-trough decline, aligning with historical IPO drawdown patterns that signal attractive long-term entry points.SPCX now trades 15% below its IPO price; technicals show emerging support at $111, with $102 as a key historical buy zone and $120 as a near-term confirmation level.Despite heavy selling and upcoming share unlocks, I believe the drawdown largely prices in supply risks, with major Wall Street targets (e.g., $300 from Morgan Stanley) remaining bullish.Q2 2026 earnings on August 4 could act as a clearing event, with implied volatility at 115% suggesting a significant price move ahead. Sven Piper/iStock Editorial via Getty Images SpaceX (SPCX) has gone from darling to dog. Shares peaked above $225 on June 16, shortly after its IPO. Today, the stock bumps along the $110 mark, which is a bit more than 50% below its peak. That’s key, as historical IPO data point to 55% being the typical max Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.